HOW THIS WORKS
Make a prediction
Use the money (inkles) you've been given to make predictions.
Wisdom of the crowd
Everyone's opinion is combined to form a prediction about what will happen.
Judgment time
Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?
The main purposes of the CJPM are: (1) to provide a marketplace in which interested academics, criminal justice practitioners, and others can “trade” (i.e., take positions) on interesting questions/issues in criminology and criminal justice and contribute to collective prediction; (2) to provide a pedagogical tool for criminal justice educators and students who wish to explore the utility of prediction markets with regard to criminal justice topics; and (3) to address the quality and timeliness of crime statistics by exploring the potential for creating market-based incentives for their improvement.
We welcome your input and hope that you find the CJPM interesting and useful. Feel free to contact Matt or Steve with questions, comments, and suggestions.
During 2011, did the overall victimization rate for "serious violent crime" decrease as compared to 2010? (rape/sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault)
56.17% chance
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David made a trade. 17 days ago
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lmckelvy made a trade. 19 days ago
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MHickman made a trade. 20 days ago
During 2012, will Texas become the first State to officially acknowledge the execution of a factually innocent person (Cameron Todd Willingham)?
51.70% chance
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MHickman made 3 trades. Most recent 19 days ago
Will the 2009 BJS census of crime laboratories show an increase in the backlog of forensic requests, as compared to the 2005 census?
60.93% chance
During 2011, did the overall victimization rate for property crime decrease as compared to 2010?
49.71% chance
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MHickman made a trade. 20 days ago
Will the June 2012 release of the Preliminary Annual UCR (Jan-Dec, 2011) report a decrease in violent crime greater than the 6.4% indicated for the first 6 months of 2011?
49.81% chance
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MHickman made a trade. 20 days ago
Will the June 2012 release of the Preliminary Annual UCR (Jan-Dec, 2011) report a decrease in property crime greater than the 3.7% indicated for the first 6 months of 2011?
49.21% chance
Will Jim Lynch keep his job as BJS Director following the November elections?
49.61% chance
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MHickman made a trade. 20 days ago
Will John Laub keep his job as NIJ Director following the November elections?
50.10% chance
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MHickman made a trade. 20 days ago
By the end of 2012, will the majority of executions in the United States be video recorded?
45.52% chance
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Modus23 made 2 trades. Most recent 20 days ago
Will the Department of Justice Civil Rights Division investigation of the Seattle Police Department result in a Consent Decree?
52.00% chance
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Modus23 made 2 trades. Most recent 20 days ago
